Why Arsenal must win the Europa League
“Consistently inconsistent”
This oxymoron seems like an appropriate description of Arsenal Football Club’s on-field performance in the 2020/21 footballing season.
With five Premier League fixtures remaining, the Club sit tenth with 46 points and just 13 wins from their 33 league fixtures to-date. Whilst this poultry win % of just under 40% is actually slightly better than 2019/20’s 36%, it all but confirms the harsh reality that this once Invincible side are very much a mid-table team.
As a hardened Arsenal fan, this reality is difficult to accept. Why is it that a squad comprising of world-renouned stars including Aubameyang, Lacazette, Partey, Luiz and Leno are seemingly worse than by-gone squads including Squillaci, Bendtner and Djourou? It seems implausible and down right inexcusable.
There of course are hypotheses and theories to explain this. Arsenal, in this season in particular, have often been their own worst enemy. The equivalent to tennis’ “Unforced errors” have blighted Arsenal; think the goals conceded against at Wolves from being 1–0 up, Aubameyang’s own goal at home against Burnley and that Leno red card.
But the one that is the most logical when factoring out the above outliers is the competitiveness of the Premier League. There has both been a democratisation of league winners, with “new money” in Chelsea and Manchester City breaking the shackles of a duopoly between Arsenal and Man United in the early 2000’s, but also an acceptable that there has been a strengthening of the pack. The phenomena however is quite a recent one, when considering the stats.
Last season in 2019/20, there were just eight points separating Leicester City in 5th and Burnley in 10th. In 2018/19, this was 18 points, and in 2017/18, it was a whopping 26 points. Ignoring the remarkable 2015/16 season, it was not uncommon to see a distribution of league points similar to 2017/18, with a clear polarisation in Clubs. Put simply, the tolerances of a below-average season even as recently as 2017/18 could still mean qualification for the fabled Champions League. The reality now is that a below-average season can leave you scrambling for a top 10 finish.
There is no doubt that the Club’s on-field performance in the league must improve, and there are ample reasons to be encouraged. For the first time in a generation, Arsenal have a core crop of young, exciting and extremely marketable talent. Saka, Martinelli, Smith-Rowe, Willock, Tierney and Odegaard (if he can be signed) have all shown quality at the pinnacle of the sport. We have seen glimpses of what could be in the near future (think the 3–1 win over Chelsea in December and the 4–0 UEL quarter-final victory over Slavia Prague), under the leadership of Mikel Arteta and the support of experienced internationals like Aubemeyang and Lacazette. We must accept that Arsenal are a Club in transition, a Club very much a work in progress, but Arteta’s so-called “non-negotiables” should also include a bear minimum by way of on-field performance. As the above demonstrated, Arsenal are slipping, and they must stop this slip.
How? Win the Europa League.
The disappointing 1–0 defeat at home to Everton in GW33 of the season all but confirmed that Arsenal’s only route back to Europe for next season was to win in Europe this season. And how fitting is it that Arsenal face Villareal on Thursday evening in the first leg of their semi-final tie; the side they most famously beat on the way to the 2005/06 Champions League Final against Barcelona, and the side now managed by none other than Unai Emery; the Spaniard who just didn’t quite fit the bill in North London.
Arsenal’s finances for 2019/20 further demonstrate this need for European success this season, and the need for European football next season to sustain their current business model. The Club have often been described as a “Europa League squad on a Champions League [wage] bill”, and so the below describes:
Arsenal recorded a second operating loss in consecutive financial years in 2019/20, hampered by year-on-year falls in broadcasting revenue and match day revenue. Arsenal’s exit at the Round of 32 last season hindered financial operations across both of these revenue lines. Given the above are as of the end of May 2020, before the real impact of COVID-19 hit by way of matches being played behind closed doors, expect further worsening of Arsenal’s books for 2020/21. Couple that with the new contract for the Club captain Aubameyang and the wages still being paid to former record signing Mesut Ozil; the now Fenerbache player who left the Club in January.
However, just as we can find solace in Arsenal’s squad strength and the new contracts for many of those ‘Young Guns’, the above is not disastrous. To start, Stan Kroenke, Arsenal’s majority shareholder and owner, is reportedly worth in excess of $8BN via our friends at Tifo Football. Whether he and his business KSE remain in power in the long-term remains unknown, Arsenal are nevertheless backed by an extremely wealthy individual. Any risk of financial bankruptcy is highly improbably.
Secondly, victory in Europe this season would help Arsenal return to their long-standing “virtuous cycle” business model, which has unfortunately fallen victim to the realities of the Clubs current predicament, both on and off the field (via COVID). Simply put, this describes how on-field success generates incremental financial wealth, which can be re-distributed back into the playing squad, to therefore support more on-field success, and so on.
Qualification for the Champions League for 2021/22 will not only secure broadcasting revenue, it (all going well) should coincide with the return to fans to The Emirates Stadium. Matchday revenue for all Clubs has been destroyed by the pandemic’s resulting “behind closed doors” policy, but for Arsenal, they are even more reliant on matchday than other Clubs.
For the previous three financial years, matchday revenue has been the third largest revenue line, behind broadcast and commercial, representing 25% of total financial revenue. Yet despite this, Arsenal stand head and shoulders above other Premier League clubs in terms of where matchday revenue sits in their business model. They are the only club to have a figure above 20%, and their value of 25% sits way above the League average of just 14%.
Beyond the financial numbers, there is also the appeal that European football brings. Arsenal have not been out of European competition for decades, and 2021/22 could enter the Club into unchartered territories by means of understanding its impact on player retention & acquisition, and commercial partnerships. Whilst Adidas and Emirates have recently signed partnership agreements and extensions respectively, the value of these multi-facetted agreements will no doubt be hampered by an erosion of the value in being associated to Arsenal (across both digital and financial KPI’s).
And so, on Thursday 29 April against old and new foes, Arsenal simply must win; not just for the pride of winning this season, but for the security of being able to win in seasons to come.
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