What now for Arteta and Arsenal?

There was something quite metaphorical about the weather which played host to Arsenal’s exit from this season’s Europa League. The match kicked off in London’s warm evening sun, with Arsenal fans around the world optimistic of a performance sufficient to progress to the Final, but by the time the final whistle had blown, The Emirates Stadium was surrounded by darkness and that optimism very much cast in shadow.

And so too is the Club. Last week, I wrote about how crucial winning the Europa League was to Arsenal. As it transpires, Arsenal have fallen at the penultimate hurdle, drawing 0–0 against the somewhat pantomime villain of Unai Emery and his Villarreal side, losing 2–1 on aggregate.

Mikel Arteta described in his post-match interview of how he and the players were “devastated” by the exit. Arsenal deserved to win on the night. Aubameyang hit the post twice, Pepe went close and Smith-Rowe missed by inches. But it was not meant to be; just as Arsenal only managed one shot on target, so Arsenal too took a shot but came up short.

With four games left in the Premier League this season and Arsenal sitting in 9th place, I discuss some of the key questions surrounding Mikel Arteta and Arsenal as we head to the close of a very disappointing campaign.

Can Arsenal qualify for Europe next season?

Mathematically, yes, but in reality, no. Arsenal need to finish 5th of above to earn a spot in one of UEFA’s European competitions for 2021/22 but Arsenal currently sit nine points behind West Ham in 5th. With just 12 points available, it would seem extremely unlikely.

Should Arteta stay?

Yes. Statistics would argue that whilst he has not outperformed his incumbent Unai Emery in terms of a match win percentage or league points, Arsenal must not become myopic.

Unai Emery during his tenure failed to create a team from his squad. You only have to look at the fact that during his first 16 games in charge, Arsenal did not lead at half-time in any of them. Emery often made changes in reaction to the situation he found himself in, rather than instilling his ideas on the match.

We must also recall that Arsenal have over-indexed this season in terms of the number of points dropped because of errors they have made themselves. Own goals, ill-discipline and, well, moments of madness, have all plagued Arsenal this season and in theory should be easier fixes. Arteta is instilling a culture and approach on his squad that is already becoming tangible, and this is something to build from, not throw away.

And remember, he has already lifted silverware in his short tenure, and has - using statistics to make a case for him, rather than against - created a more stubborn and hardened side with fewer goals being conceded, and a side that can on their day show character, adaptability and quality.

You only need to look across to their North London rivals to see the mess they find themselves in with regards to managerial appointments. Arsenal should not be quick to “jump out of the frying pan into the fire”.

What does a lack of European football mean for Arsenal’s finances?

The Club are very much entering unchartered territory. You have to look back to the early 1990’s for a season where The Gunners were not in Europe, and the footballing world we live in now is far different from that.

Arsenal are due to announce their annual returns this month for their 2020/21 financial year, with speculation now a mere certainty that the Club will record some sort of financial loss. COVID’s impact on matchday revenue will be the most noticeable year-on-year change, given Arsenal have historically generated around a quarter of their income through matchday operations. Playing every match ‘behind closed doors’ this season will speak volumes.

Whilst money in has been affected, so too has money out. Arsenal have colloquially run a “Champions League wage bill for a Europa League squad”, with staff costs in 2019/20 being in excess of £235M. The renewal of club captain Aubameyang’s contract, the signing of Willian, Gabriel and Partey, and Mesut Ozil’s wages will trade-off against the wage cut Arsenal agreed with their playing squad and some minor squad reductions.

With optimism high that 2021/22 will see a return to fans in stadia, the lack of European football for Arsenal next season means the Club will not only miss out of competition earnings but also matchplay income from at least the three home matches played in the group stages. The incremental loss will be felt twice.

How will Arsenal’s recruitment be affected?

Arsenal have traditionally leveraged a mix of either their location, manager, stadium, fandom or brand as key selling points when attracting new talent. On-field performance has usually been a bit of constant across these, with Arsenal perennially in and around the top-four, and always in Europe. Next season will be materially different however when trying to persuade players to join with a lack of European football, and it will either be felt by a pool of talent who would consider a move to North London becoming significantly smaller, or the Club having to pay over-the-odds in terms of wages, the latter of which is neither sensible or realistic in the current financial climate.

Without external financial backing from owners KSE, the economics surrounding Arsenal’s financial situation cannot facilitate an extravagant ‘spending spree’ of player acquisition this summer.

Nevertheless, some player sales may help to generate some floating cash. The question is; who should Arsenal keep and who should they let go.

Of the front three heralded as the challengers to Liverpool’s Mane-Firmino-Salah combination at the start of 2019/20, there isn’t a clear answer in who should be sold of Aubameyang-Lacazette-Pepe. Logic would dictate that given he is entering the last year of his contract, a fan favourite Lacazette should probably be sold. Aubameyang offers a bit more holistically, and Pepe is much younger and has shown progress this season. Ideally, Lacazette would re-sign, but in reality he probably wont.

Elsewhere, fringe players must be sold. Willian still has not scored for the Club and looks bereft of confidence, but is on a multi-year contract retaining some marketability. Nevertheless, he is an example of Arsenal’s closed-loop transfer approach of Edu and former executive Sanllehi backfiring.

Sead Kolasinac is on loan to relegated german side Schalke and should be sold, whilst Reiss Nelson, Eddie Nketiah and Ainsley Maitland-Niles could also make way.

Calum Chambers, Mo Elneny and Cedric Soares have a role to play in the squad and have demonstrated as much this season, so will probably stay, but long-standing right-back Hector Bellerin may well end his tenure in London, but an ample replacement would need to be found.

No purchase attempt should be made for Dani Ceballos, who has been too reckless and inconsistent this season, but Arsenal need to find a way to acquire Martin Odegaard. The Norweigan is of real quality, but with parent club Real Madrid themselves likely to go through a bit of a squad refurbishment, he may well find a place back home in Spain.

What do Arsenal’s longer-term prospects look like?

For the first time in a generation, Arsenal have a first-term squad which includes young, exciting talent, many of whom have in the recent past agreed long-term deals. Saka, Smith-Rowe, Tierney, Gabriel and Martinelli have all featured heavily this season and have collectively been some of Arsenal’s best performers, especially the former three.

Joe Willock is having a successful loan spell at Newcastle, whilst Arsenal also have Maitland-Niles and Nelson on the books. More will come from the forward Balogun.

Arsenal at times this season have done an extremely good job of blending this youth with international quality, and there is no reason to suggest why this would change. Arsenal’s squad should provide a real platform for this youth to develop.

And so, as Arsenal enter an unknown world next season, they should find comfort in the fact that, in reality, they have been here before. Just as Arsene Wenger delivered in an era of financial purgatory in response to the new stadium, so Arteta must find a way to deliver in the era of COVID. For the millions of fans around the world, let’s hope he does.

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