Lights out: Why Valtteri Bottas should leave Mercedes
Melbourne 2017. After qualifying third on the grid for the season opening race in Australia and on his debut for Mercedes, Valtteri Bottas would go on to gain no places, but also lose no places, as he crossed the line to take third and 15 points in Sunday’s race, and land his first podium wearing the silver overall’s of the German manufacturer.
Reflecting on his career during his time at the Silver Arrows, little did we know back then that his performance on that March afternoon would seemingly define him.
With the fourth round of this season’s Formula 1 world championship coming to a close last Sunday in Spain, the Fin — now in his 5th season with Mercedes and donning a rather more menacing black livery — finished third behind his teammate and race winner Lewis Hamilton and Red Bull’s Max Verstappen.
It marked Valtteri’s third third-place finish of the season and his 50th with Mercedes; both achievements in and of themselves. But in a sport dominated by importance of relativity, Bottas left Barcelona with 47 points to his name, exactly half of his teammate’s 94, and with no race wins to Hamilton’s three.
For a few seasons, Bottas’ Mercedes contract has been renewed on a one-year rolling extension. This latest contract is no different, and with nine race victories to his name with Mercedes and four consecutive constructor’s titles, I debate a key question on the paddock’s lips; should Bottas’ stay or go?
Context is king
As a consultant at a sports marketing agency in the UK, there is an objective template by which recommended actions can be credibly suggested; data, analysis, insight. This methodology and framework will act as the basis by which I will consider the future of Bottas, in a vain that I would hypothesise is not too dissimilar to Mercedes’ executives.
But in conjunction to this, I will overlay a key piece of the puzzle; context. As alluded to briefly above, Formula 1 is a polarising sport, awash with imperfections, that make it more difficult than other sports to evaluate participant performance. Teams do not compete on an even playing field, with a clear distinction between the ‘have’ and ‘have-nots’, that have been a perennial association and often ironically facilitated by the way in which the sport unevenly distributes wealth. Furthermore, systematic changes have occurred during the sport’s lifetime to its point scoring system, with can muddy the water when making historical comparisons.
Whilst these two points are not the focus of this article, they are nevertheless important pieces to bear in mind, especially when considering possible replacements to the Fin. To mitigate this, relevant & timely comparisons will be the aim of the game.
Looking to Wiesbaden
477 points. Since joining Mercedes in 2017, that is the difference in championship points scored by Valtteri Bottas compared to his teammate Lewis Hamilton. Bottas has won 1,148 championship points during that time, whilst seven-times world champion Lewis Hamilton has won 1,625.
Six world championships for Hamilton in the Silver Arrows to Bottas’ none. 98 wins to nine.
The statistics demonstrate a gulf in quality and performance that Bottas — like his association of being a bit of an ‘also-run’ — has never been able to overcome.
But is this a fair comparison to make? Lewis Hamilton is statistically one of the greatest drivers to ever race in Formula 1. With 100 pole positions and 169 podiums to his name, Hamilton stands alongside only Michael Schummacher in terms of world championships, and may well stand alone come the end of this season under the night sky in Abu Dhabi as the only driver ever to win eight.
Whilst Hamilton for vast periods of his career has benefitted from, rather than be hindered by, Formula 1’s polarisation by way of racing in, rather than against, championship winning cars, he has nevertheless consistently delivered, year after year. In his maiden season, he lost out on the championship by a single point. So fierce was his rivalry with two-time driver’s champion Fernando Alonso, the Spaniard left McLaren after just one season. A year later, Hamilton would lift his first title.
There is be it one exception; the 2016 championship. In a two-horse race, Hamilton would fall short of his fourth title losing to his teammate Nico Rosberg.
The German, who ironically carries a dual citizenship with Finland owing to his Finnish father and former racer Keke, promptly retired from the sport following his victory in Abu Dhabi, leaving with the title of ‘the world’s best’. Rosberg stands alone as a driver who can say that he beat Hamilton, in the same car, in the same team, not just once, but over an entire season. Perhaps then it is Nico, not Lewis, that should act as our benchmark for evaluating the case for and against Valtteri.
A number’s game
Nico Rosberg raced for Mercedes for seven seasons, winning the driver’s championship in what would turn out to be his last. During that time, he raced 136 times for Mercedes, winning 23 times, standing on the podium 57 times and earning 1,519 points.
Calculating performance metrics for Nico and Valtteri, at first glance, a strong case can be made for Bottas. And with good reason; whilst the German returned 11.2 points per race on average with Mercedes, the Fin has returned 13.7. This is further supported by the Fin’s strong podium record, finishing on the podium once in every 1.7 races, compared to Nico’s 2.5. The Fin was also less likely to retire from a race.
But these numbers only tell part of the story. Valtteri has been in a championship winning car every season, and yet has won none. Rosberg took the chequered flag 23 times for Mercedes, meaning that he on average won a grand prix every six races. Bottas, on the other hand, has won nine times, winning a race for Mercedes once in every nine.
And it is these numbers that portray a stark truth; Bottas has hit his zenith. Although he has made it clear that being called the no.2 driver at Mercedes “hurts”, whilst Lewis Hamilton is his teammate, it is the reality. Never has the Fin been able to consistently deliver the highest of results over a long enough period of time. Arguably, his best run of form came at the start of the 2019 season. Bottas won two of the opening four races, and was on the podium for each of the opening six, but his crash in treacherous weather in the German Grand Prix signalled the start of a second half of the season where his challenge came to an end.
And this is where our comparison to Rosberg becomes even more pertinent. Over the course of the 21 race 2016 season in which Rosberg won the driver’s championship, he won nine races (matching the number that Bottas has won across all of his time in the sport), thereby winning one out of every 2.3 races and scoring over 18 points on average per race. The aforementioned 2019 season was Vallteri’s best, with four wins, but it was and is not enough.
The peak, one season average for Nico Rosberg of nine wins is, as a testament to his quality, still outperformed by his then teammate Lewis Hamilton; the British driver has scored just under 20 points on average per race since 2017, when he teamed up alongside Bottas.
Arguably, Bottas’ best chance to ever win a world title has gone. Mercedes, who have dominated the sport during the turbo-hybrid era, was his best chance. As rules & regulations around car design move into a new age next season, the sport as a whole is entering a period of unknown. It is very difficult to say whether Mercedes’ dominance in this period will pass to the next. Bottas had the best tools at his disposal to win a title, and he may never have these again.
A talented and determined racer at heart, the competition is too fierce, both in and outside of Mercedes. It takes a truly special string of performances to overcome arguably the greatest driver of all-time in Lewis Hamilton, and this is something that history would say he cannot deliver.
Seeing Red
With Hamilton more than likely to renew his Mercedes contract for 2022, the question remains; do Mercedes stick or twist? In the end, even though his teamwork has been called into question a number of times (just think of the way Hamilton had to pass Bottas on Sunday), I would guess that Bottas would want to stay. He knows how good Mercedes are; no team has ever come close to beating Mercedes since their first constructor’s title in 2014, and even though the landscape will change, that winning pedigree will not be lost overnight.
But I think it will be a decision taken out of his hands. Mercedes and team principal Toto Wolff have no doubt valued Valtteri’s contributions since 2017 to deliver a string of constructor titles, but there is a clear and obvious successor.
Both statistical analysis and subjective opinion would place Red Bull’s Max Verstappen as the only real challenger to Lewis Hamilton. 46 podiums, 11 race wins, and a surreal record of beating every single teammate he has ever raced against, Max should be no.1 on Toto’s shopping list.
And Max will know this too. On their day, Red Bull can win races, but too often has Max been either a passenger in the field against a faster Mercedes, or a spectator in the paddock. Max has a relatively awful reliability record; he has failed to finish nearly a quarter of all of his races, most of which are linked to car reliability.
The replacement of Bottas with the acquisition of Verstappen is what many Formula 1 fans are yearning for. The two best drivers on the grid, racing on an equal playing field. Not only would Verstappen moving to Mercedes give fans a spectacle, it would also significantly weaken the opposition, and Toto will be aware of that.
Yes, Mercedes may well win a fifth constructor’s with Bottas this season, but Verstappen may well help them win five more.
Engines Off
Although we are just four races into this championship, the so-called ‘silly season’ will soon be upon us. Where Valtteri Bottas will end up, I do not know, but in a Mercedes’ car for 2022, I would not think so.
And let’s not forget. Remember the average points scored per race of 13.7 for Bottas? It is quite close to 15; the points earned for finishing third in a race.
Bottas is the bridesmaid, never the bride.
